Portugal vs. Slovenia

Introduction

Portugal will look to affirm its Euro 2024 title ambitions against Slovenia on Monday. Despite losing their last group game, Portugal secured passage to the round of 16 with two initial victories. Slovenia will play its first knockout match at a major tournament after qualifying as the best third-placed team from Group C. Who will earn the right to battle for a quarter-final spot against France or Belgium? Let’s preview this encounter.

About the game

Portugal’s Performance

Portugal cruised through their qualifying pool, with victories over the Czech Republic (2-1) and Turkey (3-0) guaranteeing their safe passage. They ended the group with a 2-0 loss to Georgia, ending their 12-match competitive winning streak. Martínez remains confident, as Portugal hasn’t lost back-to-back competitive games since Euro 2008. They hold the record for the biggest round-of-16 victory, beating Switzerland 6-1 at the 2022 World Cup.

Slovenia’s Performance

Slovenia will play their first-ever knockout stage match at a major tournament against Portugal. Despite not winning any games, they secured draws against England, Serbia, and Denmark, earning a spot as one of the best third-placed teams. However, with just 32% possession so far, they must improve to challenge Portugal. Only Iceland in 2016 (29%) and Sweden in 2020 progressed with lower possession percentages.

Head-to-Head History

Portugal will be meeting Slovenia for only the second time across all competitions. Their first encounter was in March, with Slovenia winning 2-0 in a friendly thanks to goals from Gnezda Cerin and Timi Max Elsnik. That was Portugal’s last defeat before their recent loss to Georgia.

Key Players to Watch

After a stellar season with Al-Nassr, five-time Ballon d’Or winner Cristiano Ronaldo will be crucial for the Seleção. Although he hasn’t scored in this tournament, his presence is vital. Vitinha has impressed with 29 line-breaking passes, the most for Portugal, and City’s Bernardo Silva bolsters the attack.

Slovenia’s Adam Gnezda Cerin, who led the group stage with 196 high-intensity pressures, will likely be tasked with containing Vitinha on Monday. Up front, Andraz Sporar and Benjamin Sesko, who started all three Group C games, are yet to score from a combined 12 shots (seven by Sporar, five by Sesko).

Possible Team Lineups and Changes

Roberto Martinez will recall key players for Monday’s game, including Bernardo Silva, Joao Cancelo, and Vitinha. Vitinha has made more line-breaking passes (29) than any Portugal player at Euro 2024, with a 90% pass completion rate. Joao Palhinha, Diogo Costa, and Cristiano Ronaldo will start again. After serving a suspension, Rafael Leao could start on the left wing, with Diogo Jota and Francisco Conceicao also in contention. 

If they receive another yellow card in this match, Slovenia faces potential suspensions for Jaka Bijol, Zan Celar, Petar Stojanovic, or Zan Vipotnik. They will rely on forwards Andraz Sporar and Benjamin Sesko, who have yet to score from 12 combined shots. Jan Oblak will guard the goal. Coach Matjaz Kek’s 4-4-2 formation features Timi Max Elsnik and Adam Gnezda Cerin in midfield. Jure Balkovec may replace the suspended Erik Janza at left-back.

Portugal vs. Slovenia Betting Odds and Predictions

There has been a lot of near  upset fixtures at the round of 16 so far, this match will not be far away from that trend. With the attacking prowells of the Portuguese team, they should have enough to overrun Slovenia. We will go for Portugal to win and over 1.5 match goals.

The Best Betting Odds

Conclusion

Portugal’s firepower should overpower Slovenia in this encounter. Slovenia will try to invite pressure from Portugal’s talented forwards. Even if a breakthrough takes time, Portugal’s deep squad will likely prove decisive against the hard-working underdogs.